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Receive a report on the impacts on Solano County from the "Rezoning of 17,500 acres of land in East Solano to allow the Development of a New Community" (also known as California Forever) initiative; and Take one of the following actions: (1) adopt the ordinance without alteration, (2) submit the ordinance without alteration to voters by adopting a Resolution calling a special election and combining it with the statewide November 5, 2024 general election; Consider directing the Acting Auditor-Controller to prepare a Fiscal Impact Statement for placement in the voter guide; Consider directing the Registrar of Voters to continue the historic practice of printing complete Voter Information Guides at an estimated additional cost of $2,000,000 attributable to the “Rezoning of 17,500 acres of land in East Solano to allow the Development of a New Community” initiative; and Consider providing comment on the proposed initiative and taking a position in support of or opposition
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Published Notice Required? Yes ____ No _X _
Public Hearing Required? Yes ____ No _X _
DEPARTMENTAL RECOMMENDATION:
It is recommended that the Board of Supervisors:
1. Receive a report on the impacts on Solano County from the “Rezoning of 17,500 acres of land in East Solano to allow the Development of a New Community” (also known as California Forever) initiative; and
2. Take one of the following allowable actions pursuant to California Elections Code (EC) section 9118:
i. Adopt the ordinance (initiative) without alteration at this meeting; or
ii. Submit the ordinance (initiative) without alteration to voters by adopting a Resolution calling for a special election and combining it with the next regular election on November 5, 2024
3. Consider directing the Acting Auditor-Controller to prepare a Fiscal Impact Statement for placement in the voter guide; and
4. Consider directing the Registrar of Voters to continue the historic practice of printing complete Voter Information Guides at an estimated additional cost of $2,000,000 attributable to the “Rezoning of 17,500 acres of land in East Solano to allow the Development of a New Community” initiative; and
1. Consider providing comment on the “Rezoning of 17,500 acres of land in East Solano to allow the Development of a New Community” (also known as California Forever) and taking a position in support of or opposition to the proposed initiative.
SUMMARY:
On June 25, 2024, your Board accepted the Registrar of Voter’s certificate of sufficiency that the proponents of the “Rezoning of 17,500 acres of land in East Solano to allow the Development of a New Community” (also known as California Forever) initiative gathered sufficient valid signatures to qualify the initiative for the ballot.
Once the certificate of sufficiency was accepted, the Board of Supervisors had three possible courses of action under Elections Code (EC) section 9118: 1) adopt the ordinance, 2) submit the ordinance to the voters, or 3) order a report on the initiative. Your Board ordered a report on the impact of the initiative as specified in Elections Code section 9111.
Pursuant to EC section 9118(c), once the impact report is presented to the Board, the Board must either adopt the ordinance (initiative) without alteration or submit it to the voters at the next regular election on November 5, 2024 by adopting the attached resolution.
FINANCIAL IMPACT:
The ROV has expended over 700 staff hours processing the petition at a department expense of $22,400.36. The ROV has anticipated that if this measure is to appear on the November 2024 ballot, an additional cost of approximately $2,000,000 will be incurred to maintain the historic practice of printing complete voter information guides and mailing them to all registered voters. The estimated cost of printing a copy of the initiative for each Solano County voter is $780,000. The estimated balance of $1,220,000 include significant increases in the cost of larger heavy-duty envelopes, increases in postage costs, and costs associated with manual handling of each package. Approximately $362,430 was spent on contracts with the following consultants to prepare the impact report: $68,000 with Stantec Consulting for general impact analysis; $74,882 with Luhdorff & Scalmanini Consulting Engineers for water supply analysis; $70,000 with TJKM Transportation Consultants for traffic analysis; $74,550 with Placeworks for GIS Urban 3D modeling, and $74,999 with Tschudin Consulting Group for professional project management and land use planning assistance.
DISCUSSION:
On June 25, 2024, the Solano County Registrar of Voters presented to your Board a certificate of sufficiency that the proponents of the “Rezoning of 17,500 acres of land in East Solano to allow the Development of a New Community" (also known as California Forever) initiative had gathered sufficient valid signatures to qualify the initiative for the ballot which, per EC section 9115, required that the BOS take action on one of three options:
1) Adopt the ordinance without alteration; or
2) Submit the ordinance (Initiative) without alteration to voters by adopting a Resolution calling for a special election and combining it with the next regular election on November 5, 2024 pursuant to EC section 1405.
3) Order a report on the impacts of the ordinance to be presented to the BOS within 30 days.
Your Board directed staff to prepare the attached impact report based on Option 3 above which analyzes the following:
• Initiative fiscal impact
• Initiative effect on the internal consistency of the county's general and specific plans, including the housing element, the consistency between planning and zoning, and the limitations on county actions under Section 65008 of the Government Code and Chapters 4.2 (commencing with Section 65913) and 4.3 (commencing with section 65915) of Division 1 of Title 7 of the Government Code
• Initiative effect on the use of land, the impact on the availability and location of housing, and the ability of the county to meet its regional housing needs
• Initiative impact on funding for infrastructure of all types, including, but not limited to, transportation, schools, parks, and open space. The report may also discuss whether the measure would be likely to result in increased infrastructure costs or savings, including the costs of infrastructure maintenance, to current residents and businesses.
• Initiative impact on the community's ability to attract and retain business and employment.
• Initiative impact on the uses of vacant parcels of land.
• Initiative impact on agricultural lands, open space, traffic congestion, existing business districts, and developed areas designated for revitalization.
• Additional matters that the Board of Supervisors requested to be in the report.
Because initiatives such as this one are not subject to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), there has been no preparation of an Environmental Impact Report (EIR) which would otherwise be required before this Board could take action, particularly, on a proposed project of this size. Therefore, it is important to note that the Board is not approving the impact report or certifying its contents. The purpose of this impact report is merely to inform the Board, as well as the electorate, should the Board choose to place the initiative on the ballot of the independent analysis of its effect. Because this ballot measure is not a County sponsored initiative and the limitation of the 30-day time frame in which to prepare this report, there was not an opportunity for public scoping meetings or comment periods on the report’s content. The impact report is limited to what is presented solely in the initiative itself and not subsequent or extrinsic public statements by the initiative proponents regarding various amenities and features since anything outside of the initiative itself is beyond the scope of what the Board or the electorate are voting on and may or may not be included in the new community.
SUMMARY OF STUDIED IMPACTS
• Fiscal Impacts
The proposed New Community Initiative in Solano County is expected to generate significant annual fiscal deficits for both the County and the Fire District. The formation of a Community Facilities District (CFD) may help offset some of these deficits, but it will also limit infrastructure funding capacity as result of limits of CFDs annual burden capacity. The overall financial feasibility of the project remains questionable due to the high projected costs and substantial annual deficits without clear funding sources identified in the Initiative.
• Impacts on Solano County’s General Plan
The Initiative introduces substantial changes to the Solano County General Plan, creating significant inconsistencies with existing goals, policies, and land use designations. These include conflicts related to the redesignation of agricultural land, increased development capacity, and the need for extensive infrastructure and service upgrades. Based on ownership patterns and the proposed community boundary, substantial future induced growth is anticipated. A comprehensive update to the General Plan would be required to address these inconsistencies. Delay in undertaking this update could affect the County’s ability to administer development in the unincorporated area.
• Land Use and Housing Impacts
The Initiative would urbanize a substantial portion of Solano County's agricultural land, introducing new zoning districts and significantly increasing residential and nonresidential development capacity. This conflicts with current Housing Element goals and may dramatically change how future housing allocations are distributed throughout Solano County. There is no commitment in the Initiative to address very low or low-income housing.
• Infrastructure Funding and Costs
Significant investment is required for transportation, cemeteries, schools, parks, public safety, and water/wastewater systems to support the new community. Notwithstanding the use of CFD bond proceeds and development impact fees, the project will result in increased fiscal burdens and maintenance costs for Solano County, affecting current residents and businesses.
• Water Impacts
The Initiative does not provide detailed studies or data on projected water demand, nor does it identify specific water rights available to serve that demand that the County can evaluate. The Initiative also does not identify the critical infrastructure necessary to serve the community’s total demand. In light of the uncertainty around the legal and physical availability of surface water to serve the new community, voters should consider that the new community will rely heavily on groundwater. Increased groundwater pumping to serve the new community may have a detrimental effect on other water users in the area and may require an update to the Solano Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan.
• Business and Employment Impacts
The Initiative may result in 94,000 jobs at buildout, offering employment opportunities across various sectors. However, potential fiscal deficits and the need for sustainable infrastructure funding pose challenges that need careful management to ensure long-term success. Additionally, the new community may lead to the redistribution of economic activity from existing urban centers in the seven cities to the new community area.
• Impacts on Vacant Parcels and Agricultural Lands
The Initiative would initially convert approximately 17,500 acres of agricultural land to urban uses, reducing the amount of land available for agriculture and significantly impacting the local agricultural economy. It also introduces new land use designations, including a significant increase in formally designated Open Space. The Initiative also removes the new community from the Priority Habitat designation and the Resource Conservation Overlay which will have significant impacts on local ecosystems, biodiversity, and environmental quality. The Initiative also creates four “islands” technically within the physical boundaries of the new community though not subject to the jurisdiction imposed by the Initiative.
• Traffic and Congestion Impacts
The new community is expected to result in a substantial increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), necessitating extensive and costly roadway and bridge improvements. Both freeway and local road segments are projected to experience severe congestion, especially under Initiative buildout conditions, leading to lower travel speeds, decreased roadway safety, and higher maintenance costs.
• Impacts on Existing Business Districts and Developed Areas
The Initiative may impact existing business districts by shifting economic activity to the new community area, potentially hampering revitalization efforts in established urban centers. This redistribution could affect the vitality of business districts in the existing seven cities. Additionally, the Initiative explicitly directs growth into protected agricultural and open space land, and away from existing urbanized areas where infrastructure already exists.
• Other Important Conclusions
Comments from cities in Solano County noted the difficulty in determining municipal impacts absent more information. The cities expressed concerns about the Initiative's potential impacts on traffic, water resources, economic development, environmental quality, and public services. Notwithstanding land values associated with future urbanization, rezoning the land for development will significantly increase its value immediately following a successful vote based on specifically allowed interim uses such as solar farms including energy storage facilities.
Under the Initiative, virtually all identified future uses will be “ministerial” meaning the Project Proponent will be allowed to develop with no discretion or review by any party including the County or adjacent impacted cities, property owners and Travis Air Force Base.
The Initiative does not include measurable performance standards for energy efficiency, sustainability, climate resilience, “green” infrastructure, community phasing, or other important features for quantifying the success of urbanization as it occurs.
Because of the volume of information contained in the 9111 Report, staff has prepared the attached overview and summary of considerations and key issues the Board and the public may wish to consider when evaluating the Initiative and the 9111 Report. Also attached is information provided by California Forever on July 11th requested to be included in this staff report.
By law, the report must be presented to the BOS within 30 days of the Board’s ordering its preparation, or by this meeting which is the last regularly scheduled BOS meeting available to receive the report. After receiving the report, California Election law requires that the BOS must choose to either adopt the ordinance without alteration or place it before the voters (as described in Options 1 and 2 above, respectively); however, pursuant to the Orderly Growth Initiative, any significant redesignation of agriculture to urban uses requires a vote of the people. Therefore, staff is recommending the Board select Option 2 and adopt the attached resolution placing the proposed initiative measure on the November 5, 2024 ballot.
If the Board places this measure on the ballot, the impact report will not be included in the voter guide; however, County Counsel is required by law to draft an impartial analysis which will be included. In addition, discretionary informational items may also appear in the voter guide and could include arguments for and against as well as a fiscal impact statement to be prepared by the Auditor-Controller if directed by the Board under EC section 9160(c).
The Registrar of Voters has historically included the full text of an initiative or a County measure in the published voter information guide and had intended to do so with this initiative; however, the updated cost to print and mail a copy of the entire initiative is now estimated to cost $2,000,000. Since the proponent of an initiative is not legally required to reimburse the County for these costs, California Election law does not require the inclusion of the entire measure so long as there is included information in the voter information guide as to how a voter can request a copy of the initiative which will then be mailed to the voter at the County’s cost. Given the magnitude of the impact of this Initiative, staff is requesting direction from the Board whether to include the full text of the Initiative in the voter information guide.
If your Board desires to take a position in support of or in opposition to the proposed initiative, staff can return at the next Board meeting with a position statement for the Board’s consideration.
ALTERNATIVES:
The California Elections Code offers the Board of Supervisors two possible options which are listed above. The Board must select one of them.
OTHER AGENCY INVOLVEMENT:
Resource Management in coordination with the County Administrator’s Office, and affected County departments including the Agricultural Commissioner, Assessor-Recorder, Auditor-Controller, County Counsel, and Registrar of Voters, along with the Solano County Water Agency, the Solano Transportation Authority, Fairfield-Suisun Sewer District, Montezuma Fire Protection District, the Rio Vista-Montezuma Cemetery District, and Solano LAFCO contributed to the preparation of the impact report.
CAO RECOMMENDATION:
APPROVE DEPARTMENTAL RECOMMENDATION